In addition, Mason also predicts that there will be 3.9 billion smartphone connections worldwide (i.e. SIMs) in 2018, a growth of 136% over the next five years. However, non-smartphones will still account for the majority of handset connections worldwide for the next 4 years and smartphones’ share of connections will reach only 52% in 2018. The gap between mature and developing markets will widen, as some countries approach saturation, while in others the smartphone market is only nascent.

Ronan de Renesse, Principal Analyst for Analysys Mason, comments that 2014 will be a pivotal year for vendors as the high-end smartphone market reaches saturation in developed countries. 76%, 82% and 88% of handset connections will be smartphones in Western Europe, North America and Developed Asia–Pacific in 2018.

Smartphone unit sales will decline as early 2015 in some countries, such as the Nordics in Europe and the USA, as smartphone replacements fail to compensate for the lack of non-smartphone-to-smartphone conversions. It will therefore be critical for smartphone vendors and operators to shorten replacement cycles further and retain existing customers. Stakeholders will also need to look at new areas of growth such as low-end smartphone segments and wearables.