However, that scenario no longer seems possible after tablet growth lost significant momentum in 2014 and then nearly stalled out in the first half of 2015 due to the rise in popularity of large-screen smartphones and the lack of interest in new tablets that do not add enough features or capabilities to convince existing users to buy replacements. Consequently, IC Insights has downgraded its forecast for the overall personal computing market, including much lower growth in tablets and continued weakness in standard PCs.

The updated forecast shows total personal computing unit shipments (desktop PCs, notebook PCs, tablets, and Internet/cloud-computing “thin-client” systems) dropping 1% in 2015 to 545 million. In the original forecast of the 2015 IC Market Drivers report (MD15), total personal computing system shipments were projected to rise 8% in 2015 to 609 million units, followed by a 10% increase in 2016 to 670 million. The revised outlook cuts the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of personal computing unit shipments to 2.1% between 2013 and 2018. Total personal computing system shipments are now projected to reach 578 million in 2018.

Worldwide shipments of keyboard-equipped standard PCs (desktops and notebooks) peaked in 2012 at 345 million, but they are expected to decline by a CAGR of -0.5% in the 2013-2018 timeperiod. In the updated outlook, tablets are projected to account for 45% of total systems sold in 2018 (259 million units) versus the MD15’s original forecast of 57% (423 million) that year. Further into the future, tablets are now expected to account for about half of personal computing system shipments with the remaining units being divided between standard PCs and Internet/cloud-centric platforms.