TrendForce Analyst Kurt Chen points out that the Android camp has become the sole backbone of fingerprint recognition in the smartphone market ever since iPhone took to Face ID technology instead. Furthermore, although smartphone brands did not “ditch fingerprint recognition and adopt Face ID” wholesale as others had previously feared, some brands did limit themselves to the algorithmic “Face Unlock” and abandoned costly fingerprint sensing modules on budget-sensitive starter devices. In practice, mobile payments still rely on traditional PINs and patterns to ensure information safety, yet these type of smartphone products cause market share erosion for capacitive finger scanner phones.

Although the release of Face ID caused others to worry for the future development of various fingerprint recognition-related industries, the optical FOD solution released by Synaptics and Goodix in 2018 could both accommodate a full screen design and confer a competitive cost advantage. Many smartphone brands are scrambling to introduce this technology as a result.

Added to the fact that Samsung deployed flagship devices implemented with Qualcomm's ultrasonic FOD solutions in early 2019, the number of smartphones implemented with FOD technology in 2019 may hit 200 million devices, with optical and ultrasonic solutions to take up FOD market shares of 82% and 18%, respectively. Looking at the overall smartphone fingerprint market development, if Apple has no plans of reintroducing fingerprint technology,then the fingerprint technology penetration rate will have to wait until 2021 for a chance to rise above 70%.

At the same time, relevant businesses are currently making an effort to develop FOD technologies suitable for LCD screen smartphones and possessing large-area sensing capabilities. Since this technology requires sensors to be built on TFT substrates, differing from current sensors, which are built on Silicon substrates, TrendForce believes that this type of technology will affect current major suppliers such as Goodix, Egis and FPC to a certain degree.

In contrast, display driver IC businesses already possessing panel-related technologies and deep-seated in the supply chain will have a chance to enter the fingerprint recognition market.