IC Insight shows that semiconductor unit shipments are forecast to increase to 1,024.5 billion devices in 2017 from 32.6 billion in 1978, which amounts to average annual growth of 9.2% over the 39 year period and demonstrates how increasingly dependent the world is on semiconductors.

From 2009 to 2014, the average annual growth rate of semiconductor units was 7.6%—somewhat slower than the long-term growth rate—due to global economic uncertainties through that five-year period. Stronger 8.2% annual growth is forecast from 2014 to 2019 as momentum strengthens for electronic systems.

The strongest annual increase in semiconductor unit growth over the time span shown in Figure 1 was 34% in 1984; the biggest decline was 19% in 2001 following the dot-com bust. Semiconductor unit shipments first topped the 100-billion mark in 1987, exceeded 500-billion units for the first time in 2006 and then surpassed 600-billion units in 2007 before the global financial meltdown and recession caused semiconductor shipments to fall in 2008 and 2009, the only time the industry has experienced a back-to-back decline in unit shipments.

Semiconductor unit growth then surged 25% in 2010, the second-highest growth rate since 1978. IC Insights forecasts semiconductor unit growth of 10.0% in 2015 and 11.0% in 2016. The semiconductor unit growth rate is forecast to fall to only 3.4% in 2017, enough to push annual shipments beyond one trillion devices for the first time.

Interestingly, the percentage split of IC and O-S-D devices within total semiconductor units has remained fairly steady despite advances in integrated circuit technology and the blending of functions to reduce chip count within systems. In 1978, O-S-D devices accounted for 79% of semiconductor units and ICs represented 21%. Almost 40 years later in 2017, O-S-D devices are forecast to account for 74% of total semiconductor units, compared to 26% for ICs.