The market for HDR compatible TVs, defined as any sets compatible with basic HDR formats but utilizing standard dynamic range displays, will be as much as four times larger. By 2020, IHS Markit expects that nearly all of the 112 million 4K TVs shipped worldwide will be compatible with HDR, but only 30 percent will have true HDR performance capabilities.

Worldwide demand for 4K TVs continues to grow even though total TV shipments will decline slightly in 2016. The lack of unit volume growth in the total market and continuous price erosion, especially for categories like 4K, is a concern for TV manufacturers and retailers. New display technologies like HDR hold promise for improving ASPs and profits, but only if the technology and its benefits are communicated well to consumers.

“As with many new technologies in the TV market, the ability to introduce them to consumers in a way that communicates the value is crucial to achieving lasting premiums and profits,” said Paul Gagnon, director of TV sets research for IHS Technology. “In the case of HDR, only some sets have enhanced display performance that can allow the consumer to see the benefit, while the rest will have little discernable difference to consumers, who may become confused about the value of HDR as a result.”

Standard dynamic range, or SDR, TVs will shrink rapidly as a segment within the 4K TV market, but remain the only choice for HD and 1080p resolution TVs as HDR benefits are featured primarily with 4K content. The 4K TV market is growing quickly from 55 million units in 2016 to more than 100M units by 2019, achieving 100 percent share of 50-inch and larger TV shipments by 2019.

As with many new TV technologies like 4K, HDR is featured in larger screen sizes where the additional costs are supported by larger premiums. More than 80 percent of HDR TV shipments will come from 50-inch and larger screen sizes.